CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2014-07-30T07:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2014-07-30T07:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/6262/-1
CME Note: This CME did not appear to arrive at Earth. A high speed stream signature was observed at ACE 2014-08-01 to 08-03.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2014-08-02T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).
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Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jul 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
A 31 degree filament eruption centered near N08E32 was observed in
SDO/AIA imagery beginning around 30/0400 UTC. A CME subsequently
appeared in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/0700 UTC and was also captured
in STEREO A and B COR2 imagery. Preliminary analysis indicated the
ejecta was moving around 700 km/s and had an Earth-directed component.
An initial WSA-Enlil model run suggests a glancing blow early on 02
August. However, the model solar wind speeds appear to be over-estimated
and arrival is expected mid to late on 02 August. Timing will continue
to be refined as additional analysis and modeling are carried out.
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C9/1F from Region 2127 (S09E36, Dkc/beta-gamma) at 30/1617 UTC.
Region 2127 grew during the period, and remained the largest and most
productive region on the visible disk. The second largest region, 2130
(S08E56, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained stable but produced a C3 at
30/0246 UTC.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (31 Jul-02 Aug).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (31 Jul-02 Aug).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was nominal. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft reached a peak 358 km/s at 30/0148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT
at 30/0333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/0244Z. Phi was generally negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels for the first
two days of the forecast (31 Jul-01 Aug). Mid to late on 02 August,
disturbed conditions are expected with the passage of the glancing blow
from the CME described above.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period from
30/0000-0300 UTC.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet (Below G1-Minor)
for the forecast period (31 Jul-02 Aug). There is a chance for
unsettled to active conditions mid to late on 02 Aug with the expected
arrival of a glancing blow from the CME described above.
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Jul 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2014
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 1
06-09UT 1 1 0
09-12UT 1 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 2
15-18UT 1 1 3
18-21UT 2 2 3
21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Aug 01 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 01-Aug 03 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 01-Aug 03 2014
Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03
00-03UT 2 1 4
03-06UT 2 1 3
06-09UT 1 0 3
09-12UT 2 1 3
12-15UT 1 1 3
15-18UT 1 1 2
18-21UT 1 4 2
21-00UT 2 3 2
Lead Time: 65.50 hour(s)Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2014-07-31T00:30Z
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